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General election: GDP figures a blow to Tories as ONS cuts UK economic growth rate days before election

Production, construction, and agriculture all shrank with only services showing growth

Jon Stone
Tuesday 28 April 2015 17:38 BST
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All campaigning and no investing... Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne at Arriva TrainCare in Crewe on Monday
All campaigning and no investing... Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne at Arriva TrainCare in Crewe on Monday (PA)

Britain’s rate of economic growth has been cut in half by the national statistics office, dealing a surprise blow to the Conservative campaign just day before voters go to the polls for the general election.

In a surprise set of figures, the Office for National Statistics said the economy had grown by only 0.3% in the first three months of 2015 – half the rate it grew at in the final quarter of 2014.

The figures, which show a worrying slowing in Britain’s economic fortunes, were significantly worse than City analysts had been expecting.

The economy’s construction, production and agriculture sectors all shrank, with only the service sector keeping overall economic growth positive with an increase of 0.5%, according to the ONS.

In a statistical release, the ONS noted that data was preliminary but likely to be accurate.

“The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate,” the Office noted.

“The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP.”

The figures mean that the economic growth rate, at 0.3%, is less than half the 1% the Coalition inherited from the last Labour government in 2012.

The Chancellor George Osborne noted “rising instability abroad” in his response to the figures.

“GDP figures show future of the economy is on the ballot paper. We should stick to the plan that's delivering a brighter more secure future,” he tweeted.

“With rising instability abroad, now is worst possible time to vote for instability at home.”

The figures are a blow to Mr Osborne, who has made much of the UK's moderate but steady growth rate in recent years.

The Conservative press office tweeted that Labour would “risk … dragging up back to square one”.

Labour MP Ian Lucas tweeted: “Over 5 years Tories have failed to eliminate deficit as promised and, in last month, long-delayed growth has halved,” while his colleague Barry Sheerman added “Not good news on economy! Let's see how George Osborne spins this one!”

The figures could give a boost to the Labour campaign, which has lagged behind on economic competence.

Alternatively, a shift in discussion to the economy, an area in which the Conservatives are perceived to be strong, could indirectly benefit David Cameron’s party.

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